In recent decades, major imbalances have occurred in the development of the economy. Examples include the occurrence of bubbles in the housing market, increasing prices on the commodities market, and shocks that move stock prices. From the perspective of a stable prosperity development, major drawbacks adhere to these imbalances: bubbles lead to wrong investment decisions and as a result of crises and recessions, households are faced with unemployment and the related income effects and speculations. Accurately predicting and, if possible, better management of economic instability, is therefore a subject of great social importance.
The project Business Cycle – Business Indicators, conducted by Erasmus Quantitative Intelligence B.V. (EQI) and finalised in July 2017, had the ambition to enable to predict, respond to and to manage cyclical phenomena. Cyclical phenomena such as recessions, expansion, slight growth, and bubbles are caused by internal as well as external factors. Internal factors stem from human behaviour. Consider as an example the development of housing prices; regular price increases occur until the bubble bursts and a period of sustained price erosion occurs. External factors include natural disasters, terrorist attacks and changes in tax laws.
In this project indicators were be prospected that can help us to recognise, for example, a future economic crisis or to make our economy more resilient to external influences. In addition, questions from business and families were answered.